作者：辛石安马 来源：原创 发布日期：08-21
一 | CONCORD, N.H. -- The New Hampshire presidential primary filing period starts Wednesday, a ritual unruffled by either a changing of the guard or changes to the nominating calendar elsewhere.For the first time in more than four decades, candidates will file paperwork with a new secretary of state thanks to the retirement last year of longtime elections chief Bill Gardner. But his successor, David Scanlan, is carrying on the tradition of ensuring New Hampshire remains first, waiting for the dust to settle in other states before scheduling the 2024 contest.“I’m really in no hurry,” he said in an interview Tuesday.In contrast, the candidates themselves — particularly the longshots — often are in a race to sign up first in hopes that a bit of media attention will boost their campaigns. In 1991, a writer from New York drove 11 hours in a snowstorm only to find another perennial candidate waiting at the door. In 2007, a Minnesota fugitive living in Italy sent a package by courier that arrived just before an ex-convict embarked on a 90-minute rant that included five costume changes.Current candidates have until Oct. 27 to sign up, and dozens are expected to do in part because it’s relatively cheap and easy. They need only meet the basic requirements to be president, fill out a one-page form and pay a $1,000 filing fee.In 2020, 33 Democrats and 17 Republicans signed up. The all-time high was 1992, when 61 people got on the ballot. But this cycle could be notable instead for whose name isn’t on the ballot.New Hampshire, with its state law requiring its primaries to be held first, is defying the Democratic National Committee’s new primary calendar which calls for South Carolina to kick off voting on Feb. 3, followed by New Hampshire and Nevada. The shakeup came at the request of President Joe Biden in a bid to empower Black and other minority voters crucial to the party’s base.Biden’s campaign won’t comment on whether he will be on the ballot in New Hampshire. But he wouldn’t be the first reelection-seeking incumbent missing from the primary ballot: President Lyndon Johnson won the 1968 Democratic primary as a write-in, though a shockingly strong-second place showing by Sen. Eugene McCarthy helped push him out of the race.Scanlan, who served as deputy secretary of state for 20 years, said he was excited to welcome candidates starting Wednesday. Like his predecessor, he plans to greet them with a few encouraging words, but don’t expect the obscure trivia Gardner often added.“I don’t have any history lessons planned,” Scanlan said. “That was Bill’s style, and he was really, really good at it.”。
二 | 美股期货短线下挫，纳指期货跌超2%；现货黄金短线下挫近16美元美元，现报1715.42美元/盎司。汽油价格环比下跌10.6%，住房、食品以及医疗继续上行 8月整体通胀回落主要得益于汽油价格继续下降，与此同时，住房、食品以及医疗价格继续上行。具体来看，整体能源价格指数在8月份环比下降5%，创2020年4月以来的最大跌幅。其中，汽油价格指数环比下跌了10.6%，燃油价格则下跌5.9%。
三 | 在燃油价格下跌的推动下，机票价格环比下跌4.6%。食品价格指数继续上行，8月环比上涨0.8%，7月的涨幅为1.1%，主要受家庭以外食品价格推动（0.9%）。同比来看，食品价格指数8月上涨11.4%，创1979年5月以来的最大涨幅，其中。家庭食品指数上涨13.5%，创1979年3月以来的最大涨幅。住房成本继续增加。8月住房指数环比上涨0.7%，高于7月的0.5%。8月租金指数上涨0.7%，业主等效租金（OER）上涨0.7%。
四 | 同比来看，住房价格指数上涨了6.24%，比7月的5.69%大幅上行，创1990年8月以来新高。与此同时，租金通胀率升至6.74%，创有纪录以来最高水平。医疗价格指数也有所上涨，8月环比上涨0.7,%，高于7月的0.4%，其中住院服务价格环比上涨0.7%，处方药价格上涨0.4%。新车、汽车保险和维修的价格也有所上涨，而二手车和卡车价格延续近期跌势。另外，工资水平已经连续第17个月相对于生活成本下降。9月加息75基点“板上钉钉”？ CPI增速放缓恐怕难以阻止美联储在下周的议息会议上暴力加息75基点。8月整体CPI同比增速虽然下降至8.3%，但仍比美联储2%的目标高出三倍多，而且核心通胀率意外上行，美联储在抗击通胀方面依然任重道远。
五 | 高盛交易员John Flood此前也表示：“有趣的动态是，当Nick Timiraos(被称为“新美联储通讯社”)上周发表文章时，美联储实际上提前宣布了9月21日会议加息75个基点的决定。”数据公布后，芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储9月加息75个基点的概率升至90%，加息50基点的概率降至10%。此外，美联储掉期交易完全定价美联储9月加息75个基点，显示2023年初终端利率高于4.15%。返回搜狐，查看更多责任编辑：
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Published on:17:58:47